Q4 2025 Outlook: Fed Cuts, Tariffs, Bank Losses & Gold’s Surge

I hope this message finds you well. With our latest Q4 2025 Market Report, I’d like to share a brief video highlighting key economic developments and what they may mean.

Click on the video below to watch.

Key Highlights from the Q4 2025 Market Report:

• Government Shutdown & Missing Data
  • The ongoing federal government shutdown has delayed critical reports such as September and October jobs data.
  • Private sector data is filling some gaps, but uncertainty remains.

• Fed Rate Cuts Ahead
  • Lower-than-expected inflation gives the Federal Reserve room to cut rates twice—at the end of October and again in December.
  • The Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment supports a continued easing cycle into year-end.

• Regional Bank Losses
  • Losses at Zion’s Bank ($50 million) and Fifth Third Bank ($200 million) raised concerns over potential cracks in the regional banking system.
  • Larger institutions remain stable, but investor sentiment toward smaller banks has weakened.

• Tariff Tensions Escalate
  • A new 10% tariff on Canada and 100% tariffs briefly imposed on China have added volatility to trade and currency markets.
  • Retaliatory measures could further disrupt global supply chains.

• U.S. & Global Stocks
  • U.S. equities rose 8% in Q3, led by technology and communication sectors, despite historically high valuations.
  • European stocks have outperformed on a weaker dollar, while Japanese equities look increasingly attractive amid corporate reforms and low interest rates.

• Gold’s Massive Rally
  • Gold prices are up more than 50% this year, reaching nearly $4,000/oz.
  • Long-term fundamentals remain strong, driven by central bank buying and diversification away from the U.S. dollar.

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Our Perspective

The market environment remains complex. Falling interest rates and resilient corporate earnings continue to support asset prices, while rising geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and regional banking issues introduce new risks. Gold remains a valuable hedge as investors navigate these dynamics.

I encourage you to watch the full video for a detailed discussion. As always, please reach out if you’d like to review your portfolio strategy in light of these developments.

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