Nov. 2025 Market Report: Data Gaps, Fed Cuts on Hold & Global Markets Surge

I hope this message finds you well. With our latest November 2025 Market Report, I’d like to share a brief video highlighting key economic developments.

Click on the video below to watch.

Key Highlights from the November 2025 Market Report:

Historic Government Shutdown Creates Data Vacuum

• The 43-day federal shutdown disrupted economic reporting
• September jobs report was released six weeks late
• October jobs and inflation data will never be published
• Investors are navigating without critical economic indicators

Labor Market Shows Weakness

• September jobs report: 119,000 new jobs created
• Unemployment rose to 4.4% which is the highest since October 2021

Fed Rate Cuts: December Uncertain, 2026 Direction Unclear

• Fed cut rates twice (September and October) to the current 3.75%-4% range
• President Trump to appoint new Fed chair in May 2026

U.S. Stocks Pull Back from October Peak

• U.S. equities declined modestly from October highs
• Technology and communication services drive earnings growth
• Energy and consumer staples sectors lag
• Pullback doesn’t appear to signal ultimate market peak

Global Markets Outperform U.S.

• South Korea up nearly 80%, Spain over 60% year-to-date
• Non-U.S. stocks trade at ~15x earnings vs. 22.5x for U.S. stocks
• Dollar weakness is contributing to international returns

AI Spending Drives Global Growth

• Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are spending ~$100 billion per quarter on AI
• Much of this capital flows overseas via semiconductor and equipment imports
• South Korea and Taiwan are benefiting from the AI infrastructure buildout

Bitcoin Retreats, Unlike Gold

• Bitcoin fell in November on reduced expectations for a December Fed cut
• Gold continues making record highs on central bank buying
• Bitcoin has not been adopted as a reserve asset by central banks globally
  

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Our Perspective

The market environment reflects a transition period with several dynamics at play. U.S. stocks face valuation challenges while global markets trade at more attractive valuations. The missing economic data complicates near-term assessment, although labor market weakness warrants close attention. International markets are benefiting from AI-related capital flows and currency movements. We continue to closely monitor these developments.

I encourage you to watch the full video for a detailed discussion. As always, please reach out if you’d like to review your portfolio strategy in light of these developments.

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