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Retiring on a Market High — Crescent Private Wealth
Case Study

What if you retired at
the worst possible time?

January 1, 2000. The dot-com bubble was at its peak. Markets were about to fall. Here's what happened to a $1,000,000 diversified portfolio — and how it fared through two crashes, a pandemic, and 25 years of rising withdrawals.

Jan 2000
Retirement date — market peak
$1.82M
Total withdrawn over 25 years
$1.89M
Portfolio value remaining
7.60%
Average annual return
The Case Study

The most feared retirement scenario — tested.

A $1,000,000 portfolio, invested on January 1, 2000 — the peak of the dot-com bubble — with annual withdrawals starting at 5% and rising 3% each year to keep pace with inflation.

Starting Point
Jan 1, 2000
Markets were near all-time highs. The dot-com crash began within weeks.
Initial Portfolio
$1,000,000
Split equally across three diversified, income-oriented funds.
Withdrawal Strategy
5% → 3% growth
Started at $50,000/year ($4,167/mo), rising 3% annually for inflation.
Portfolio Value
Annual Withdrawal
Hypothetical · dividends reinvested · pre-tax
2000–2002: Dot-com crash −49%
2008–2009: Financial crisis −57%
2015–2016: Oil & China selloff
2020: COVID crash & recovery
2022: Rate hike bear market

The portfolio kept earning — even while paying you.

Every year the portfolio generated dividend income and capital gains — money working independently of the withdrawal. The crash years are shaded: notice dividends continued even through 2008–2009.

YearWithdrawalDividend IncomeCapital GainsPortfolio Value
$1,822,963
total withdrawn
$1,175,271
total dividends earned
$592,319
total capital gains
$1,894,806
final portfolio value
✦
The portfolio survived — and grew.
Despite retiring into the dot-com bust and enduring two of the worst bear markets in modern history, a diversified, income-oriented portfolio not only funded $1,822,963 in rising withdrawals — it ended 2025 worth $1,894,806. Nearly double what was originally invested. The lesson: discipline, diversification, and a long-term strategy can withstand even the worst timing.

How would your portfolio hold up under a similar strategy? Adjust the inputs below to see how long your savings may last — and what you might leave behind.

$
Assumed constant nominal rate
years
5.0%
1%12%
3.0%
0%8%
Portfolio survives 25 years
Loading…
✦ Survived
Starting Value
—
Initial portfolio
Total Withdrawn
—
Over full period
Ending Value
—
At end of period
First Withdrawal
—
Growing each year
Portfolio Value
Annual Withdrawal
Assumes constant return rate, no taxes or fees

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This page is provided for educational and illustrative purposes only. The historical portfolio illustration (Act 1) is a hypothetical example based on data from Capital Group / American Funds (CAIBX, AMECX, ABALX) for the period January 1, 2000 – December 31, 2025, prepared by Ahmad M. Quqa of Crescent Private Wealth. Dividends and capital gains are reinvested. The initial investment is not subject to sales charge. The effects of income and capital gains taxes are not demonstrated. Figures shown are past results and are not predictive of results in future periods. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. Prices and returns will vary, so investors may lose money.

The personal scenario tool (Act 2) uses a simplified constant-return model. It does not account for taxes, fees, inflation adjustments beyond the withdrawal growth rate, or variable market conditions. Results are hypothetical and should not be relied upon as financial advice. This tool does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Crescent Private Wealth recommends consulting with a qualified advisor before making any financial decisions.

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All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. There is no guarantee the investment process will lead to profits. Past performance of any security or strategy is no guarantee or indication of future results or performance. Market conditions change continuously.

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