Who’s Right on Inflation? Fed, Shoppers, or Investors

Tracking inflation is like herding cats these days.

Should you believe the monthly updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, what the Fed says about future prices, or your own experience at the grocery store?

The answer is maybe a little of all three.

The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which looks at the past 12 months, showed core inflation rose at a 2.8 percent annual rate, the best number in four years—an encouraging update for investors.

However, a few days earlier, the New York Fed said its March inflation survey, which looks ahead 12 months, showed prices trending higher in 2025 and reaching 3.6 percent in a year.

What about today’s prices? Take eggs, for example. Wholesale egg prices have fallen, but you might not see much relief at the checkout line as a shopper. Confused? You’re not alone.

The expression “herding cats” means a task that is exceptionally difficult or frustrating. That certainly can describe getting a handle on inflation these days! At times like this, I encourage people to “tune out the noise” and remain disciplined with their overall investment strategy.

^{1. CNBC.com, April 10, 2025}

^{2. Reuters.com, April 14, 2025}

^{3. TradingEconomics.com, April 16, 2025}